Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 0.589425 0.682813 0.783056 0.898295 1.026741 1.165131 1.325127
2025-03-16 0.434087 0.552441 0.688819 0.856230 1.054769 1.281254 1.557612
2025-03-23 0.345064 0.480605 0.647567 0.865154 1.137756 1.464390 1.881409
2025-03-30 0.253092 0.389006 0.568829 0.818180 1.148343 1.563509 2.117109
2025-04-06 0.190818 0.324542 0.514655 0.794703 1.185447 1.699189 2.411697
2025-04-13 0.141152 0.267533 0.461234 0.764579 1.210225 1.821811 2.702038
2025-04-20 0.110665 0.233131 0.434773 0.768918 1.283111 2.015883 3.104835
2025-04-27 0.084440 0.199266 0.403074 0.760780 1.337107 2.189046 3.494388
2025-05-04 0.066368 0.175343 0.383381 0.768785 1.416485 2.406014 3.963834
2025-05-11 0.051437 0.153099 0.362267 0.771235 1.487383 2.616558 4.440307
2025-05-18 0.036413 0.125027 0.323939 0.737211 1.494355 2.729529 4.779553
2025-05-25 0.024740 0.099771 0.284906 0.694864 1.481450 2.809230 5.073061
2025-06-01 0.017945 0.084825 0.265387 0.689329 1.537125 3.011873 5.585697
2025-06-08 0.012404 0.070254 0.242582 0.673009 1.571307 3.182208 6.060127
2025-06-15 0.009615 0.063584 0.237911 0.695344 1.682316 3.494101 6.788858
2025-06-22 0.006190 0.051138 0.213382 0.667918 1.691951 3.628799 7.230909
2025-06-29 0.004141 0.042734 0.197481 0.657723 1.735334 3.827646 7.795323
2025-07-06 0.002610 0.034870 0.179985 0.639717 1.759794 3.993276 8.312315
2025-07-13 0.001838 0.030761 0.173744 0.650050 1.846999 4.283104 9.064595
2025-07-20 0.001197 0.026230 0.163884 0.648344 1.906936 4.524683 9.743725
2025-07-27 0.000819 0.023249 0.158940 0.659909 1.998922 4.835489 10.565489
2025-08-03 0.000531 0.020278 0.152552 0.665831 2.078200 5.126160 11.364800
2025-08-10 0.000265 0.015929 0.136838 0.638596 2.073308 5.245314 11.849435